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VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – April 9

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The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, April 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Find out what the public is betting on today’s NBA schedule. Click to view NBA Betting Splits for free

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, INDIANA, BOSTON, MIAMI, NEW YORK, SAN ANTONIO, ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, BOSTON, MIAMI, NEW YORK, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, WASHINGTON, ORLANDO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DENVER ML, LA LAKERS ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, WASHINGTON ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): IND-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIA-ATL, PLAY OVER in NYK-CHI, PLAY OVER in SAS-MEM, PLAY OVER in ORL-HOU, PLAY OVER in NOP-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive NBA betting trend patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 128-88 SU but 94-120-1 ATS (43.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
4/9: FADE ATLANTA vs. Miami
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4 vs MIA)

* Under the total was 97-65-1 (59.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
4/9: UNDER the total in LA LAKERS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235.5)

Applying Top 2023-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
4/9 at Miami
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4 vs MIA)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 25-22 SU but 17-30 ATS (36.2%).
4/9 vs. Boston
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+2.5 vs BOS)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 34-13 SU and 33-14 ATS (70.2%).
4/9 at Houston
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-3 at HOU)

WASHINGTON is 21-14 ATS (60%) as a road underdog this season but 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) as a home underdog
4/9 at Dallas
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+17 at MIN)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 29-18 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
4/9: UNDER the total in DALLAS-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)

* DETROIT is 4-14 SU and 11-7 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
4/9: DETROIT at Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (+15.5 at PHI)

* GOLDEN STATE is 23-51 SU and 23-51 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
4/9: FADE GOLDEN STATE at La Lakers
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at LAL)

* HOUSTON is 14-41 SU and 19-35 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
4/9: FADE HOUSTON vs. Orlando
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs ORL)

* MIAMI is 27-22 SU and 31-16 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
4/9: MIAMI at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-4 at ATL)

* PHILADELPHIA is 22-15 SU and 21-16 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
4/9: PHILADELPHIA vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-15.5 vs DET)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 92-58 SU and 89-58-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 60-21 SU and 53-27-1 ATS (66.3%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 167-31 SU but just 87-108-3 ATS (44.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-13 at CHA), FADE MINNESOTA (-17 vs WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-66 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 155-128 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 206-144 (58.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-PHI (o/u at 223), PLAY OVER in DAL-CHA (o/u at 223), PLAY OVER in IND-TOR (o/u at 239.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-MIN (o/u at 224), PLAY UNDER in DEN-UTA (o/u at 225), PLAY OVER in NOP-POR (o/u at 213)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 193-117 SU but 137-168-5 ATS (44.9%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32-1 ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-13 at CHA), FADE DENVER (-15 at UTA)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 230-125 SU but just 150-194-11 ATS (43.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-13 at TOR), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 vs SAC)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 264-210 (55.7%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-CHA (o/u at 223), PLAY UNDER in ORL-HOU (o/u at 216)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 226-240 SU and 208-253-5 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-15 at UTA), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 vs SAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 233-227 SU and 207-240-11 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-15 at UTA)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 121-149 SU and 120-143-7 ATS (45.6%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-15 at UTA)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 151-130 SU and 158-115-8 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+15.5 at PHI), PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at LAL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 110-79 SU and 109-77-3 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (+5.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-56 SU but 43-39 ATS (52.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING MILWAUKEE (+2.5 vs BOS), CONSIDER PLAYING DETROIT (+15.5 at PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 87-15 SU but 44-56-3 ATS (44%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-15.5 vs DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 59-70 SU and 70-57-3 ATS (55.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+2.5 vs. BOS), PLAY UTAH (+15 vs. DEN), PLAY HOUSTON (+3 vs. ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 188-234 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE UTAH (+15 vs DEN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3 (+1.4), 2. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+1.2), 3. CHARLOTTE +13 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -17 (+1.9), 2(tie). DENVER -15 (+1.3) and BOSTON -2.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +13 (+4.2), 2. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+2.5), 3. TORONTO +13 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -17 (+3.5), 2. PHILADELPHIA -15.5 (+1.5), 3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIL OVER 228 (+2.9), 2. IND-TOR OVER 239.5 (+1.8), 3. NOP-POR OVER 213 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-MIN UNDER 224 (-7.6), 2. ORL-HOU UNDER 216 (-2.4), 3. DAL-CHA UNDER 223 (-1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3 (+2.3), 2. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+1.7), 3. LA CLIPPERS +7 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -17 (+3.6), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+1.8), 3. DENVER -15 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIL OVER 228 (+2.1), 2. SAS-MEM OVER 217 (+1.9), 3. IND-TOR OVER 239.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-MIN UNDER 224 (-8.1), 2. DET-PHI UNDER 223 (-2.7), 3. DAL-CHA UNDER 223 (-2.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(507) BOSTON at (508) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is on a 3-0 ATS streak versus Boston after a 2-15 ATS skid prior
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(503) DALLAS at (504) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE has won the last four ATS versus Dallas
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(521) DENVER at (522) UTAH
* UTAH is on a 5-1 ATS run hosting Denver
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(501) DETROIT at (502) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 hosting Detroit
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(525) GOLDEN STATE at (526) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 6-1 ATS in the last seven hosting Golden State but lost the last time
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(505) INDIANA at (506) TORONTO
* Underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS streak in the IND-TOR series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(523) LA CLIPPERS at (524) PHOENIX
* LA CLIPPERS have won the last three ATS versus Phoenix
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(509) MIAMI at (510) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the MIA-ATL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(527) NEW ORLEANS at (528) PORTLAND
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last five ATS versus Portland
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(511) NEW YORK at (512) CHICAGO
* Under the total was 6-1 in the last seven of the NYK-CHI series at Chicago
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(517) ORLANDO at (518) HOUSTON
* ORLANDO is on a 5-1 ATS run at Houston
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(519) SACRAMENTO at (520) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the SAC-OKC series
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(515) SAN ANTONIO at (516) MEMPHIS
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the SAN-MEM series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(513) WASHINGTON at (514) MINNESOTA
* WASHINGTON has won the last six ATS at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS