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VSiN Analytics MLB Betting Trend Report – April 9

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The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Find out what the public is betting on today’s MLB schedule. Click to view MLB Betting Splits for free

 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 vs. MIA), PLAY TEXAS (-205 vs. OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (*if they become a -200 favorite or higher at MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-192 vs MIA), LA DODGERS (-192 at MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in PHI-STL (o/u at 7.5)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-130 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (+124 at CIN), SEATTLE (-105 at TOR), HOUSTON (-130 at KC), LA DODGERS (-192 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-135 at STL), ARIZONA (-185 at COL), CHICAGO CUBS (+130 at SD)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
    System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND RL, NY YANKEES RL, ATLANTA RL, LA DODGERS RL, TEXAS RL, ARIZONA RL

    MLB Bullpen Systems

    The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

    Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 77-69 for -12.71 units. Although a slow start, I’m by no means alarmed by this number this early in the season, and I would expect these to solidify more & more the deeper we get into the season.
    System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, TEXAS, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS

    Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent.
    A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is 9-4 for +0.27 units.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-198 vs NYM), CLEVELAND (-218 vs CWS), TEXAS (-205 vs OAK), NY YANKEES (-192 vs MIA), LA DODGERS (-192 at MIN)

    Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system.
    In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 7-3 in the first week and a half and has won +0.59 units.
    System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-218 vs CWS), FADE NY YANKEES (-192 vs MIA)

    Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
    A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 16-19 record, for -1.44 units.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+124 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+130 at SD), SEATTLE (-105 at TOR), DETROIT (+100 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+160 vs LAD)

    Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
    In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have started in the opposite direction, going 13-6 for +8.44 units. The three-game teams are 6-4 for +2.99 units. I don’t expect this is continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
    System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS (+164 at ATL), FADE WASHINGTON (+145 at SF), OAKLAND (+170 at TEX)
    3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+110 vs HOU), FADE PITTSBURGH (-120 vs DET)

    Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
    In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 10-7 for +0.62 units through Monday, 4/8.
    System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-218 vs. CWS), PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 vs. MIA)

    Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
    Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There were eight plays on this angle in the first week and a half of 2024 and these teams went 4-5 for -4.22 units, a slow start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-185 at COL), DETROIT (+100 at PIT), MINNESOTA +160 vs LAD)

    MLB Extreme Stats Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

    Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent.
    Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 315-290 (52.1%) for +39.47 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.5%.
    System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-175 vs WSH)

    “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
    Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1450-1358 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.36 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-148 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-130 at KC), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. CHC), BOSTON (+114 vs. BAL)

    Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
    You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1300-1702 (43.3%) for -176.09 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+160 vs MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-120 at LAA), SEATTLE (-105 at TOR)

    Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
    Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2924-2551 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -375.95 units and a ROI of -6.9%.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-192 vs. MIA), CINCINNATI (-148 vs. MIL), TORONTO (-115 vs. SEA), PITTSBURGH (-120 vs. DET), ATLANTA (-198 vs. NYM), TEXAS (-205 vs. OAK), COLORADO (+154 vs. AZ), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. CHC), LA ANGELS (+100 vs. TB)

    Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
    MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 823-703 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.88 units for backers and a ROI of 1.7%.
    System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+160 vs LAD)

    Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
    Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 418-347 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.10 units, for an ROI of 3.7%.
    System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-205 vs. OAK)

    MLB Streak Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

    Losing Streak Betting System #5:
    Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 72-60 outright (+4.20 units, ROI: 3.2%).
    System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-185 at COL)

    Losing Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 132-107 run (+50.30 units, ROI: 21%).
    System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at CLE)

    Winning Streak Betting System #1:
    Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 166-85 (+15.60 units, ROI: 6.2%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
    System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-218 vs. CWS)

    Winning Streak Betting System #6:
    Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 59-60 (-25.53 units, ROI: -21.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
    System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-218 vs CWS)

    Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

    Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: MILWAUKEE +155 (+18 diff), NY METS +164 (+15 diff), WASHINGTON +145 (+30 diff)

    Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: TORONTO -115 (+15 diff), PITTSBURGH -122 (+15 diff)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: CHC-SD OVER 8 (+0.7), BAL-BOS OVER 8 (+0.6), MIA-NYY OVER 8 (+0.5), LAD-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: CWS-CLE UNDER 9 (-1.6), OAK-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.9)

    MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

    (901) MILWAUKEE (6-3) at (902) CINCINNATI (6-4)
    Trend: Frankie Montas 0-3 (-3.70 units) vs NL Central (all as favorite as well)
    System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-155 vs MIL)

    (903) NEW YORK-NL (4-6) at (904) ATLANTA (6-3)
    Trend: Adrian Houser is 1-4 (-3.30 units) vs Atlanta in the last five seasons (ATL scoring 5.2 RPG in these games)
    System Match: FADE NY METS (+164 at ATL)

    Trend: Adrian Houser is 5-16 (-9.75 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last five seasons
    System Match: FADE NY METS (+164 at ATL)

    (905) PHILADELPHIA (5-5) at (906) ST LOUIS (5-6)
    Trend: Zach Wheeler is 5-0 (+5.00 units) vs. St. Louis in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 at STL)

    (907) ARIZONA (4-7) at (908) COLORADO (3-8)
    Trend: Cal Quantrill is 0-9 as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
    System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 vs AZ)

    (913) BALTIMORE (5-4) at (914) BOSTON (7-3)
    Trend: Corbin Burnes just 10-13 (-5.67 units) against teams with a 58% or higher win percentage
    System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-135 at BOS)

    Trend: Boston is 6-11 (-4.48 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
    System Match: FADE BOSTON (+114 vs BAL)

    (921) OAKLAND (3-7) at (922) TEXAS (6-4)
    Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 14-3 (+8.85 units) at home vs. teams with a < 48% win percentage in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-205 vs OAK)

    (923) TAMPA BAY (5-6) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (6-4)
    Trend: Aaron Civale is 16-5 (+6.65 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-120 at LAA)

    Trend: LAA is 1-10 (-10.55 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the last two seasons
    System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+100 vs TB)

    (927) MIAMI (1-10) at (928) NEW YORK-AL (9-2)
    Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 5-11 (-7.77 units) in his last 16 starts with NYY
    System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-192 vs MIA)

    Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-9 (-16.35 units) in the last five seasons
    System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-192 vs MIA)

    (929) LOS ANGELES-NL (9-4) at (930) MINNESOTA (3-5)
    Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 28-3 (+21.95 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at MIN)

    Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Mon 4/8-Wed 4/10
    Trend: Under the total is 14-3 (82.4%, +10.7 units) in the last 17 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
    – The ROI on this trend is 62.9%
    System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

    Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

    NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY