Dynasty Fantasy Stock Watch: Early April Value Assessment – ​​College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects


Welcome to the first part of the Dynasty Stock WatchCovering the move we made to Dynasty 700 in light of new game time information, small performance examples and (gulp) injuries. Even this early in the season, even with just over a week of performance, there are still some changes to dynasty values.

In most cases, it is still very early in the season and we should refrain from overreacting as we look forward to a week of major league performance and some spring training. While this is generally true, there are some news or actionable performance results that we should act on. In other words, overall we have minimized movement for the sake of movement. Even then, there were some significant changes in the dynasty's values.

Rather than reporting on individual moves up or down in a player's value, we've grouped them together to categorize why they went up or down so early in the season.

Injuries that significantly impact the value of the dynasty

The biggest changes to dynasty value typically affect players whose primary dynasty value depends heavily on their performance in 2024, which is usually because they are older players in the decline phase of their careers. The most obvious changes come from an injury, which significantly impacts 2024 valueespecially if it tarnishes their future value now too. In these cases, their value drops significantly. The players who unfortunately fall into this category are:

Shane Bieber
Devin Williams

There is a subset of interesting cases in this basket of injured playerswhere there might be an opportunity if you're willing to take the riskin which players who are considered injury-prone get injured again or where the long-term effects of the current injury are not yet known. The best examples of this are Gerrit Cole, Matt McLain or Luis Robert Jr. It is not yet known how long they will be out due to injury and how productive they will be when they get back on the field. Looking back in a few months, you might see today as an incredible buying opportunity… or a disastrous near-miss. To account for this uncertainty, we have slightly reduced the number of the following players:

Eloy Jimenez
Gerrit Cole
Luis Robert Jr.
Royce Lewis
Matt McLain
Trevor story
Josh Lowe

Another subgroup of injuries are players for whom the injury has no long-term impact on their dynasty valueEither because they'll be contributing for a long time, or because the injury shouldn't affect them too much overall. They have also been revised down in the rankings, but generally to a lesser extent. The following players fall into this category:

Spencer Strider
Eury Perez
Nathaniel Lowe
Emmet Sheehan
Tommy Edman
Oswald Peraza
Eduardo Rodríguez
Jonny DeLuca
Geraldo Perdomo

Ultimately, we removed her due to the nature of her injuries and her developmental level Daniel Espino And Nick Frasso completely removed from the list.

Role change (downwards)

There were some players who were already expected to play a valuable role in 2024 before the season began. Early on, we saw trends in management that suggested this may no longer be the case. The clearest example of this is players who were thought to be closer to a team but no longer appear to be. For example, Alex Lange That's definitely not the case in Detroit primary candidatealthough it is not clear whether this is the case either Jason Foley or Andrew Chafin or Shelby Miller (or…)and also Joel Payamps which appears to have been replaced by Abner Uribe in the pecking order of the Milwaukee bullpen.

The other players who were downgraded were players who (a) were expected to make the major league club after spring training but were demoted, (b) from which were expected to hold significant roles but appear to be at risk of losing that role or taking on a lower value or (c) have not yet signed with a team. These players have been demoted accordingly in the rankings and include:

Marco Luciano
Orelvis Martinez
Everson Pereira
Deyvision De Los Santos
Ben Joyce
Drew Waters
Spencer Horwitz
Edouard Julien
Alexander Kirk
Trent Grisham
Luis Rengifo
Tommy Pham
Brandon Belt

Players who seem to achieve their result in the upper range

Now that we've gotten a lot of the negativity out of the way, let's turn to the positive. There were a number of players whose potential outcomes were very different at the start of the seasoneither because they had a new role or because it was unclear how they would fare after a long layoff. To account for this uncertainty, we previously ranked them by their mean “expected value”. So far this year, some players have felt that we have been too conservative by appearing healthy or successfully transitioning into a new (more valuable) role. The players in this category whose ranking we have now adjusted upwards are:

Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
Jordan Hicks
Mason Miller
Henry Davis
Taylor Ward
Yu Darvish
Tyler O'Neill
Cutter Crawford
Luis Severino
Casey Mize
Tanner Houck
Starling Marte
Jack Flaherty
Michael Conforto
Keaton Winn

Players are building on short sample success in 2023

There were some players who showed great potential in 2023 (or the second half of 2023), but these exceeded previous expectations and were therefore viewed with cautious skepticism. So far, some players have continued into 2024 exactly as we optimistically hoped:

Cole Ragans
Tarik Skubal
Nick Pivetta
Bobby Miller
Spencer Steer
Jake Burger
Lane Thomas
Jarren Duran
Christopher Morel
Maikel Garcia
Cristopher Sanchez
Zack Littell
Reid Detmers

Increased value after spring training

Recently, we highlighted a number of players who impressed scouts in spring training. Their path to production has also accelerated enormously in some casesEither by turning Spring Training into a big league clubJared Jones, Jackson Merrill, Graham Pauley are clear examples of thisor who definitely seem to be a lot closer to promotion than previously thought.

Jared Jones
Paul Skenes
Jackson Merrill
Graham Pauley
Tyler Freeman
Jordan Leisure
James Wood
Chase DeLauter
George Lombard Jr.
Christian Scott
Jefferson Rojas
Jonny Famelo
Joey Loperfido
Alfredo Duno
Mike Vasil
Nelson Rada
Jeremy Rodríguez
Starlyn Caba
Caden Dana
Trevor Werner
Walker Jenkins

The final subset of players who have moved up the rankings are those players who have been thrust into a more prominent role sooner than expected, or who appear to be solidifying their status in that role

Gavin Stone
Ben Brown
Max Meyer
Louie Varland
Brice Turang
Abner Uribe
Michael Busch
Jose Caballero

Some additional updates have been made to players who are on new teams since the last update:

Blake Snellsigns with the Giants.
Dylan Stop itsold to the Padres.
Drew Thorpetraded to the White Sox.
Matt Chapmansigns with the Giants.
JD Davistraded to the A's.
Jordan Montgomerysigns with the Diamondbacks
Mike Clevingersigns with the White Sox

Finally, there are a number of players who appear to be dangerously close to the brink based on their performances at the start of the season. We haven't changed their ranking too muchbut keep an eye on them:

Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
Kris Bryant
Anthony Rendon
Giancarlo Stanton