close
close

VSiN Analytics MLB Betting Trend Report – April 5

0

The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Find out what the public is betting on today’s MLB schedule. Click to view MLB Betting Splits for free

 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is not a loss, and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs BAL), TEXAS (+114 vs HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-250 vs. OAK), ATLANTA (-285 vs. AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-170 at COL), BALTIMORE (-135 at PIT), SEATTLE (+100 at MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in OAK-DET, PLAY OVER in LAD-CHC, PLAY UNDER in SD-SF, PLAY OVER in SEA-MIL

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC), TAMPA BAY (-170 at COL), BALTIMORE (-135 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (-102 at SF), PHILADELPHIA (-192 at WSH), HOUSTON (-135 at TEX), SEATTLE (+100 at MIL), BOSTON (-105 at LAA)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
    System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL, DETROIT RL, TAMPA BAY RL, PHILADELPHIA RL, ATLANTA RL, KANSAS CITY RL

    MLB Bullpen Systems

    The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

    Better rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment.
    System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, BOSTON, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE

    Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%.
    In games last regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. So far for the 2024 season, they are 4-1 for +2.02 units.
    System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-192 at WSH), FADE ATLANTA (-285 vs AZ)

    Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent.
    A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 7-3 for +0.78 units.
    System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-245 vs OAK), PLAY KANSAS CITY (-192 vs CWS)

    Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system.
    In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle was 5-3 in the final week and again lost –2.4 units. This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit! This season, these big favorites are 2-3 for -4.28 units.
    System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC), FADE DETROIT (-245 vs OAK), FADE KANSAS CITY (-192 vs CWS)

    Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long.
    A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 11-9 for +3.18 units.
    System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+105 at CIN), PLAY BOSTON (-105 at LAA), PLAY SEATTLE (+100 at MIL)

    Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks.
    I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season, they are 3-3 for -0.42 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6% (this 2024 season, they are 4-1 for +3.36 units).
    System Matches: 3+ games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs. LAD), FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs. BOS)

    Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks.
    In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system” (this 2024 season they are 7-4 for +2.30 units).
    System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC), PLAY BOSTON (-105 at LAA)

    Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks.
    Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2% (this 2024 season, they are 1-5 for -5.59 units).
    System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs SD)

    MLB Extreme Stats Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

    “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
    Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1445-1352 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -176.76 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (-112 vs. BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+150 vs. LAD), KANSAS CITY (-185 vs. CWS)

    Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
    You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1290-1693 (43.2%) for -176.22 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+136 at NYY), OAKLAND (+215 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-170 at COL), PHILADELPHIA (-192 at WSH), SEATTLE (+102 at MIL), BOSTON (-108 at LAA), NY METS (+105 at CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 at KC)

    Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
    Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2913-2540 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -374.12 units and an R.O.I. of -6.9%.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-162 vs. TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (+150 vs. LAD), COLORADO (+142 vs. TB), LA ANGELS (-112 vs. BOS), PITTSBURGH (+114 vs. BAL), KANSAS CITY (-185 vs. CWS)

    Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit.
    Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 414-345 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.40 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.5%.
    System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-245 vs OAK)

    MLB Streak Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

    Winning Streak Betting System #6:
    Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 57-57 (-24.13 units, ROI: -21.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
    System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at CHC), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 vs LAD), FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs BOS)

    Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

    Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +160 (+23 diff), ARIZONA +230 (+70 diff), OAKLAND +200 (+51 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +160 (+31 diff)

    Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: NY YANKEES -155 (+16 diff)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: LAD-CHC OVER 7.5 (+1.1), SD-SF OVER 7.5 (+1.1), BAL-PIT OVER 8 (+0.7)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: TB-COL UNDER 12.5 (-1.6)

    MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

    (907) PHILADELPHIA (2-4) at (908) WASHINGTON (2-4)
    Trend: Philadelphia is 3-7 (-10.80 units) as heavy road favorite (-180 or higher) with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
    System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-192 at WSH)

    Trend: Washington is 9-35 (-24.80 units) vs Divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
    System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+160 vs PHI)

    (911) TORONTO (3-4) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (6-1)
    Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 14-6 (+13.34 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+130 at NYY)

    Trend: Marcus Stroman is 7-2 (+5.15 units) in the last nine home day game starts
    System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs TOR)

    (913) OAKLAND (1-6) at (914) DETROIT (5-1)
    Trend: Oakland is 3-13 (-8.45 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
    System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+200 at DET)

    (915) CHICAGO-AL (1-5) at (916) KANSAS CITY (3-4)
    Trend: Kansas City is 5-1 (+4.40 units) at home vs. Chicago White Sox with starter Brady Singer
    System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-192 vs CWS)

    (917) HOUSTON (2-5) at (918) TEXAS (4-2)
    Trend: Houston is 1-5 (-5.20 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
    System Match: FADE HOUSTON (*if they fall into this line range, -135 currently)

    (921) TAMPA BAY (3-4) at (922) COLORADO (1-6)
    Trend: Colorado was 7-4 (+5.35 units) during the day last season with starter Austin Gomber
    System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+142 vs TB)

    (925) SEATTLE (3-4) at (926) MILWAUKEE (4-1)
    Trend: Seattle is 27-11 (+21.03 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last three seasons (including 13-3 (+11.24 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
    System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+100 at MIL)

    Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 4/5-Sun 4/7, Fri 8/2-Sun 8/4
    Trend: Favorites are just 15-28 (34.9%, -24.73 units) in the last 43 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
    – The R.O.I. on this trend is -57.5%
    System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-162 vs TOR)

    Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

    NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY