NCAA Final Four Betting Trends


Continuing my series for the NCAA Men's Tournament, here's the most important information for Saturday's Final Four round-robin games, using data from my Rounds and Conference Trends articles in the VSiN Bracket Mania Betting Guide. The games' combined point spreads are higher than they have ever been this round since my 25-year-old database began. Does this mean we will see two defeats on Saturday or will the underdogs have a good run? Let's see what the trends have to say:

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The last four games

• In the Final Four, winning teams have a record of 35-7-2 ATS (83.3%) since 2001, although San Diego State last beat Florida Atlantic in a 2023 meeting without coverage. (ABOUT BOTH OVERALL WINNERS)

• The Final Four #1 seed is 17-5 SU and 12-9-1 ATS (57.1%) since 2001 when not compared to another #1 seed. (ON CONNECTICUT -12, PURDUE –9)

• Final Four favorites with 5 or more points have a solid record of 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) over the last 24 years. (ON CONNECTICUT -12, PURDUE –9)

• In terms of overall totals, the last seven Final Four games that posted numbers of 130 or lower were worse, averaging just 112.2 PPG overall. In all other games, the Final Four total since 1999 is 24-15-2 over (61.5%). (OVER 160 ALA-CON, OVER 146 NCST-PUR)

• Five of the last six semi-final games have all gone over the total score, extending the record of 12-5-1 overs (70.6%) in the last nine tournaments. (OVER 160 ALA-CON, OVER 146 NCST-PUR)

• Bettors have been sharp in Final Four games since 2015, going 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) in games where the point spread has shifted since the opener. (ON CONNECTICUT -12, NC STATE +9)

• Eight of the last nine Final Four games in which the opening total went down during the week leading up to tip-off were above the total (88.9%). (OVER 160 ALA-CON)


  • In the last three NCAA Tournaments, the ACC has a record of 33-13 SU and 33-12-1 ATS (73.3%). (ON NC STATE +9)
  • ACC The teams were most successful in the Final Four since 2001, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%). (ON NC STATE +9)
  • ACC Teams playing as double-digit seeds have an ATS of 19-8-2 (70.3%) since 2012. (ON NC STATE +9)

Great East

  • The top two seeds (seed #1 and seed #2) from the Great East have confirmed their positions since 2016 with 26-6 SU and 23-9 ATS (71.9%) in the NCAAs. (ON CONNECTICUT -12)
  • Teams from the Great East Conference has been a highly reliable double-digit favorite in the NCAAs since 2007, going 43-3 SU and 31-15 ATS (67.4%). (ON CONNECTICUT -12)
  • Favorites are 48-19 ATS (71.6%) in their last 67 Great East NCAA Tournament games, including 20-5 ATS the last two years. (ON CONNECTICUT -12)

Big Ten

  • In second round and later tournament games Big Ten The teams are just 21-34 SU and 22-31-2 ATS (41.5%) since 2017. (VS. PURDUE -9)


  • The last five NCAA Tournaments have been an uphill battle SEC teamsas they are just 44-42 SU and 33-53 ATS (38.4%) since Friday of the first round of the 2018 tournament. (AGAINST ALABAMA +12)
  • The underdogs are 50-29 ATS (63.3%) in their last 79 games. SEC NCAA tournament games total. (ON ALABAMA +12).
  • The No. 4 seed and the SEC haven't matched up well of late, as they're 18-24 ATS (42.9%) at this point since 2000 and have a 29-12-1 (70.7%) underperforming rate overall. (AGAINST ALABAMA +12 – UNDER 160 ALA-PUR)

* CONNECTICUT won its only head-to-head matchup with Alabama in November 2022. That game was also a neutral site game in Portland, OR, and the Huskies (+1.5) won 82-67.

(673) NC STATE vs. (674) PURDUE
* NC STATE and PURDUE have met three times since 2004, with the Boilermakers going 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS. The underdogs were 2-0-1 in the three meetings. In the last meeting in December 2021, Purdue (-15) won 82-72 in a neutral court contest in Brooklyn, NY.